Publications

IMPORTANCE: Since 2013, the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and American Heart Association (AHA) have recommended the pooled cohort equations (PCEs) for estimating the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). An AHA scientific advisory group recently developed the Predicting Risk of cardiovascular disease EVENTs (PREVENT) equations, which incorporated kidney measures, removed race as an input, and improved calibration in contemporary populations. PREVENT is known to produce ASCVD risk predictions that are lower than those produced by the PCEs, but the potential clinical implications have not been quantified.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the number of US adults who would experience changes in risk categorization, treatment eligibility, or clinical outcomes when applying PREVENT equations to existing ACC and AHA guidelines.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Nationally representative cross-sectional sample of 7765 US adults aged 30 to 79 years who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys of 2011 to March 2020, which had response rates ranging from 47% to 70%.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Differences in predicted 10-year ASCVD risk, ACC and AHA risk categorization, eligibility for statin or antihypertensive therapy, and projected occurrences of myocardial infarction or stroke.

RESULTS: In a nationally representative sample of 7765 US adults aged 30 to 79 years (median age, 53 years; 51.3% women), it was estimated that using PREVENT equations would reclassify approximately half of US adults to lower ACC and AHA risk categories (53.0% [95% CI, 51.2%-54.8%]) and very few US adults to higher risk categories (0.41% [95% CI, 0.25%-0.62%]). The number of US adults receiving or recommended for preventive treatment would decrease by an estimated 14.3 million (95% CI, 12.6 million-15.9 million) for statin therapy and 2.62 million (95% CI, 2.02 million-3.21 million) for antihypertensive therapy. The study estimated that, over 10 years, these decreases in treatment eligibility could result in 107 000 additional occurrences of myocardial infarction or stroke. Eligibility changes would affect twice as many men as women and a greater proportion of Black adults than White adults.

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: By assigning lower ASCVD risk predictions, application of the PREVENT equations to existing treatment thresholds could reduce eligibility for statin and antihypertensive therapy among 15.8 million US adults.

IMPORTANCE: The incidence of hospital encounters for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) decreased sharply early in the COVID-19 pandemic and has not returned to prepandemic levels. There has been an ongoing debate about what mechanism may underlie this decline, including patients avoiding the hospital for treatment, excess mortality from COVID-19 among patients who would otherwise have had an AMI, a reduction in the incidence or severity of AMIs due to pandemic-related changes in behavior, or a preexisting temporal trend of lower AMI incidence.

OBJECTIVE: To describe drivers of changing incidence in AMI hospital encounters during the COVID-19 pandemic.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cross-sectional study used traditional Medicare claims from all patients enrolled in traditional Medicare from January 2016 to June 2023 (total of 2.85 billion patient-months) to calculate the rate of AMI hospital encounters (emergency department visits, observation stays, or inpatient admissions) per capita at all short-term acute care and critical access hospitals in the United States overall and by patient characteristics. Observed rates were compared with expected rates that accounted for shifts in population characteristics and the prepandemic temporal trend (as estimated over 2016-2019). Data were analyzed in November 2023.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Hospital encounters for AMI.

RESULTS: On average, the study sample included 31 623 928 patients each month from January 2016 through June 2023, for a total of 2 846 153 487 patient-months during the 90-month study period. In June 2023, there were 0.044 AMI hospital encounters per 100 patients, which was 20% lower than in June 2019 (0.055 encounters per 100 patients). Early in the pandemic, AMI rates moved inversely with COVID-19 death rates and tracked patterns seen for other painful acute conditions, such as nephrolithiasis, suggesting these changes were associated with care avoidance. Changes in patient characteristics driven by excess deaths during the pandemic explained little of the decline. Later in the pandemic, the decline may be explained by the long-standing downward trend in AMI incidence; by April 2022, the observed rate of encounters matched the expected rate that accounted for this trend. During the full pandemic period, from March 2020 to June 2023, there were an estimated 5% (95% prediction interval, 1%-9%) fewer AMI hospital encounters than expected.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: The early reduction in AMI encounters was likely driven by care avoidance, while ongoing reductions through June 2023 likely reflect long-standing temporal trends. During the pandemic, there were 5% fewer AMI encounters than expected.

BACKGROUND: PINNACLE FLX (Protection Against Embolism for Nonvalvular AF Patients: Investigational Device Evaluation of the WATCHMAN FLX LAA Closure Technology) demonstrated improved outcomes and low incidence of adverse events with the WATCHMAN FLX device in a controlled setting. The National Cardiovascular Disease Registry's Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion Registry was utilized to assess the safety and effectiveness of WATCHMAN FLX in contemporary clinical practice in the United States.

METHODS: The WATCHMAN FLX Device Surveillance Post Approval Analysis Plan used data from the Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion registry to identify patients undergoing WATCHMAN FLX implantation between August 2020 and September 2022. The key safety end point was defined as all-cause death, ischemic stroke, systemic embolism, or device or procedure-related events requiring open cardiac surgery or major endovascular intervention between device implantation and hospital discharge. Major adverse events were reported at hospital discharge, 45 days, and 1 year.

RESULTS: Among 97 185 patients in the Left Atrial Appendage Occlusion registry undergoing WATCHMAN FLX, successful implantation occurred in 97.5% (n=94 784) of patients. The key safety end point occurred in 0.45% of patients. At 45 days post-procedure, all-cause death occurred in 0.81% patients, ischemic stroke in 0.23%, major bleeding in 3.1%, pericardial effusion requiring intervention in 0.50%, device-related thrombus in 0.44%, and device embolism in 0.04% patients. No peri-device leak was observed in 83.1% of patients at 45 days. At 1 year, the rate of all-cause death was 8.2%, the rate of any stroke was 1.5% (ischemic stroke, 1.2%), and major bleeding occurred in 6.4% of patients.

CONCLUSIONS: In a large contemporary cohort of patients with the WATCHMAN FLX device, the rates of implant success and clinical outcomes through 1 year were comparable with the PINNACLE FLX study, demonstrating that favorable outcomes achieved in the pivotal approval study can be replicated in routine clinical practice.

BACKGROUND: Timely follow-up after cardiovascular hospitalization is recommended to monitor recovery, titrate medications, and coordinate care.

OBJECTIVE: To describe trends and disparities in follow-up after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and heart failure (HF) hospitalizations.

DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING: Medicare.

PARTICIPANTS: Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries hospitalized between 2010 and 2019.

MEASUREMENTS: Receipt of a cardiology visit within 30 days of discharge. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to estimate changes over time overall and across 5 sociodemographic characteristics on the basis of known disparities in cardiovascular outcomes.

RESULTS: The cohort included 1 678 088 AMI and 4 245 665 HF hospitalizations. Between 2010 and 2019, the rate of cardiology follow-up increased from 48.3% to 61.4% for AMI hospitalizations and from 35.2% to 48.3% for HF hospitalizations. For both conditions, follow-up rates increased for all subgroups, yet disparities worsened for Hispanic patients with AMI and patients with HF who were Asian, Black, Hispanic, Medicaid dual eligible, and residents of counties with higher levels of social deprivation. By 2019, the largest disparities were between Black and White patients (AMI, 51.9% vs. 59.8%, difference, 7.9 percentage points [pp] [95% CI, 6.8 to 9.0 pp]; HF, 39.8% vs. 48.7%, difference, 8.9 pp [CI, 8.2 to 9.7 pp]) and Medicaid dual-eligible and non-dual-eligible patients (AMI, 52.8% vs. 60.4%, difference, 7.6 pp [CI, 6.9 to 8.4 pp]; HF, 39.7% vs. 49.4%, difference, 9.6 pp [CI, 9.2 to 10.1 pp]). Differences between hospitals explained 7.3 pp [CI, 6.7 to 7.9 pp] of the variation in follow-up for AMI and 7.7 pp [CI, 7.2 to 8.1 pp]) for HF.

LIMITATION: Generalizability to other payers.

CONCLUSION: Equity-informed policy and health system strategies are needed to further reduce gaps in follow-up care for patients with AMI and patients with HF.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE: National Institute on Aging.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of and outcomes associated with different antithrombotic strategies after left atrial appendage occlusion (LAAO) are not well described.

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to evaluate patterns of antithrombotic medication strategies at discharge following LAAO with the Watchman FLX device in real-world practice and to compare the risk of adverse events among the different antithrombotic regimens.

METHODS: The authors evaluated patients in the NCDR (National Cardiovascular Data Registry) LAAO Registry who underwent LAAO with the second-generation LAA closure device between 2020 and 2022. They grouped patients by mutually exclusive discharge antithrombotic strategies and compared the rates of adverse events at 45 days and 6 months using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS: Among 53,878 patients undergoing successful LAAO with the second-generation LAA closure device, the most common antithrombotic discharge regimens were direct oral anticoagulant (DOAC) plus aspirin (48.3%), DOAC alone (22.6%), dual antiplatelet therapy (8.1%), warfarin plus aspirin (7.7%), and DOAC plus P2Y12 inhibitor (4.9%). In multivariate analysis, DOAC alone had a lower rate of major adverse events and major bleeding at 45 days of follow-up compared with DOAC plus aspirin (major adverse events: HR: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.68-0.91; major bleeding: HR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.60-0.80). These differences persisted at 6 months. Warfarin without aspirin also showed lower rates of major bleeding at both time points. No differences were seen in stroke/transient ischemic attack or device-related thrombus.

CONCLUSIONS: In real-world U.S. practice, discharge on DOAC alone or warfarin alone was associated with a lower rate of adverse events compared with DOAC plus aspirin.

Chronic total occlusions (CTO) of the coronary arteries are common among patients presenting to the cardiac catheterization laboratory, and data suggests a worse overall prognosis in patients with CTOs. Percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) of CTOs has been shown to improve anginal symptoms in observational studies and in a limited number of randomized trials. However, CTO PCI has not been shown to lead to a reduction in other important end points such as myocardial infarction or death. Furthermore, despite recent advances in the field, CTO PCI still carries higher risks and a lower likelihood of success compared with non-CTO PCI. Thus, determining which patients may be appropriate for CTO PCI is challenging and must involve a comprehensive risk-benefit analysis and discussion with the patient. Therefore, we review the currently available data regarding CTO PCI, including the clinical outcomes, the role of preprocedural ischemia testing, and various procedural success and risk stratification scores. Finally, we present our approach to the patient referred for CTO PCI.

BACKGROUND: US adults often overpay for generic prescription medications, which can lead to medication nonadherence that negatively impacts cardiovascular outcomes. As a result, new direct-to-consumer online medication services are growing in popularity nationwide. Amazon recently launched a $5/month direct-to-consumer medication subscription service (Amazon RxPass), but it is unclear how many US adults could save on out-of-pocket drug costs by using this new service.

OBJECTIVES: To estimate out-of-pocket savings on generic prescription medications achievable through Amazon's new direct-to-consumer subscription medication service for adults with cardiovascular risk factors and/or conditions.

METHODS: Cross-sectional study of adults 18-64 years in the 2019 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey.

RESULTS: Of the 25,280,517 (SE ± 934,809) adults aged 18-64 years with cardiovascular risk factors or conditions who were prescribed at least 1 medication available in the Amazon RxPass formulary, only 6.4% (1,624,587 [SE ± 68,571]) would achieve savings. Among those achieving savings, the estimated average out-of-pocket savings would be $140 (SE ± $15.8) per person per year, amounting to a total savings of $228,093,570 (SE ± $26,117,241). In multivariable regression models, lack of insurance coverage (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.5, 95%CI 1.9-6.5) and being prescribed a greater number of RxPass-eligible medications (2-3 medications versus 1 medication: OR 5.6, 95%CI 3.0-10.3; 4+ medications: OR 21.8, 95%CI 10.7-44.3) were each associated with a higher likelihood of achieving out-of-pocket savings from RxPass.

CONCLUSIONS: Changes to the pricing structure of Amazon's direct-to-consumer medication service are needed to expand out-of-pocket savings on generic medications to a larger segment of the working-age adults with cardiovascular risk factors and/or diseases.

Epidemiologists are attempting to address research questions of increasing complexity by developing novel methods for combining information from diverse sources. Cole et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2023;192(3)467-474) provide 2 examples of the process of combining information to draw inferences about a population proportion. In this commentary, we consider combining information to learn about a target population as an epidemiologic activity and distinguish it from more conventional meta-analyses. We examine possible rationales for combining information and discuss broad methodological considerations, with an emphasis on study design, assumptions, and sources of uncertainty.