Publications

BACKGROUND: The recommendation for transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) or surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) in patients 65 to 80 years of age is equivocal, leaving patients with a difficult decision. We evaluated whether TAVR compared to SAVR is associated with reduced odds for loss of independent living in patients ≤65, 66 to 79, and ≥80 years of age. Further, we explored mechanisms of the association of TAVR and adverse discharge.

METHODS: Adult patients undergoing TAVR or SAVR within a large academic medical system who lived independently before the procedure were included. A multivariable logistic regression model, adjusting for a priori defined confounders including patient demographics, preoperative comorbidities, and a risk score for adverse discharge after cardiac surgery, was used to assess the primary association. We tested the interaction of patient age with the association between aortic valve replacement (AVR) procedure and loss of independent living. We further assessed whether the primary association was mediated (ie, percentage of the association that can be attributed to the mediator) by the procedural duration as prespecified mediator.

RESULTS: A total of 1751 patients (age median [quartiles; min-max], 76 [67, 84; 23-100]; sex, 56% female) were included. A total of 27% (222/812) of these patients undergoing SAVR and 20% (188/939) undergoing TAVR lost the ability to live independently. In our cohort, TAVR was associated with reduced odds for loss of independent living compared to SAVR (adjusted odds ratio [OR adj ] 0.19 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.14-0.26]; P < .001). This association was attenuated in patients ≤65 years of age (OR adj 0.63 [0.26-1.56]; P = .32) and between 66 and 79 years of age (OR adj 0.23 [0.15-0.35]; P < .001), and magnified in patients ≥80 years of age (OR adj 0.16 [0.10-0.25]; P < .001; P -for-interaction = .004). Among those >65 years of age, a shorter procedural duration mediated 50% (95% CI, 28-76; P < .001) of the beneficial association of TAVR and independent living.

CONCLUSIONS: Patients >65 years of age undergoing TAVR compared to SAVR had reduced odds for loss of independent living. This association was partly mediated by shorter procedural duration. No association between AVR approach and the primary end point was found in patients ≤65 years of age.

Estimating the likelihood of urgent mechanical circulatory support (MCS) can facilitate procedural planning and clinical decision-making in chronic total occlusion (CTO) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We analyzed 2,784 CTO PCIs performed between 2012 and 2021 at 12 centers. The variable importance was estimated by a bootstrap applying a random forest algorithm to a propensity-matched sample (a ratio of 1:5 matching cases with controls on center). The identified variables were used to predict the risk of urgent MCS. The performance of the risk model was assessed in-sample and on 2,411 out-of-sample procedures that did not require urgent MCS. Urgent MCS was used in 62 (2.2%) of cases. Patients who required urgent MCS were older (70 [63 to 77] vs 66 [58 to 73] years, p = 0.003) compared with those who did not require urgent MCS. Technical (68% vs 87%, p <0.001) and procedural success (40% vs 85%, p <0.001) was lower in the urgent MCS group compared with cases that did not require urgent MCS. The risk model for urgent MCS use included retrograde crossing strategy, left ventricular ejection fraction, and lesion length. The resulting model demonstrated good calibration and discriminatory capacity with the area under the curve (95% confidence interval) of 0.79 (0.73 to 0.86) and specificity and sensitivity of 86% and 52%, respectively. In the out-of-sample set, the specificity of the model was 87%. The Prospective Global Registry for the Study of Chronic Total Occlusion Intervention CTO MCS score can help estimate the risk of urgent MCS use during CTO PCI.

IMPORTANCE: Observational (nonexperimental) studies that aim to emulate a randomized trial (ie, the target trial) are increasingly informing medical and policy decision-making, but it is unclear how these studies are reported in the literature. Consistent reporting is essential for quality appraisal, evidence synthesis, and translation of evidence to policy and practice.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the reporting of observational studies that explicitly aimed to emulate a target trial.

EVIDENCE REVIEW: We searched Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, and Web of Science for observational studies published between March 2012 and October 2022 that explicitly aimed to emulate a target trial of a health or medical intervention. Two reviewers double-screened and -extracted data on study characteristics, key predefined components of the target trial protocol and its emulation (eligibility criteria, treatment strategies, treatment assignment, outcome[s], follow-up, causal contrast[s], and analysis plan), and other items related to the target trial emulation.

FINDINGS: A total of 200 studies that explicitly aimed to emulate a target trial were included. These studies included 26 subfields of medicine, and 168 (84%) were published from January 2020 to October 2022. The aim to emulate a target trial was explicit in 70 study titles (35%). Forty-three studies (22%) reported use of a published reporting guideline (eg, Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology). Eighty-five studies (43%) did not describe all key items of how the target trial was emulated and 113 (57%) did not describe the protocol of the target trial and its emulation.

CONCLUSION AND RELEVANCE: In this systematic review of 200 studies that explicitly aimed to emulate a target trial, reporting of how the target trial was emulated was inconsistent. A reporting guideline for studies explicitly aiming to emulate a target trial may improve the reporting of the target trial protocols and other aspects of these emulation attempts.

BACKGROUND: Indications and outcomes for percutaneous ventricular assist device (pVAD) use in surgically ineligible patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) remain poorly characterized.

AIMS: We sought to describe the use and timing of pVAD and outcome in surgically ineligible patients.

METHODS: Among 726 patients enrolled in the prospective OPTIMUM study, clinical and health status outcomes were assessed in patients who underwent pVAD-assisted PCI and those without pVAD.

RESULTS: Compared with patients not receiving pVAD (N = 579), those treated with pVAD (N = 142) more likely had heart failure, lower left ventricular ejection fraction (30.7 ± 13.6 vs. 45.9 ± 15.5, p < 0.01), and higher STS 30-day predicted mortality (4.2 [2.1-8.0] vs. 3.3 [1.7-6.6], p = 0.01) and SYNTAX scores (36.1 ± 12.2, vs. 31.5 ± 12.1, p < 0.01). While the pVAD group had higher in-hospital (5.6% vs. 2.2%, p = 0.046), 30-day (9.0% vs. 4.0%, p = 0.01) and 6-month (20.4% vs. 11.7%, p < 0.01) mortality compared to patients without pVAD, this difference appeared to be largely driven by significantly higher mortality among the 20 (14%) patients with unplanned pVAD use (30% in-hospital mortality with unplanned PVAD vs. 1.6% with planned, p < 0.01; 30-day mortality, 38.1% vs. 4.5%, p < 0.01). The degree of 6-month health status improvement among survivors was similar between groups.

CONCLUSION: Surgically ineligible patients with pVAD-assisted PCI had more complex baseline characteristics compared with those without pVAD. Higher mortality in the pVAD group appeared to be driven by very poor outcomes by patients with unplanned, rescue pVAD.

INTRODUCTION: Measurement of the spatial ventricular gradient (SVG), spatial QRST angles, and other vectorcardiographic measures of myocardial electrical heterogeneity have emerged as novel risk stratification methods for sudden cardiac death and other adverse cardiovascular events. Prior studies of normal limits of these measurements included primarily young, healthy, White volunteers, but normal limits in older patients are unknown. The influence of race and body mass index (BMI) on these measurements is also unclear.

METHODS: Normal 12-lead electrocardiograms (ECGs) from a single center were identified. Patients with abnormal cardiovascular, pulmonary, or renal history (assessed by International Classification of Disease [ICD-9/ICD-10] codes) or abnormal cardiovascular imaging were excluded. The SVG and QRST angles were measured and stratified by age, sex, and race. Multivariable linear regression was used to assess the influence of age, BMI, and heart rate (HR) on these measurements.

RESULTS: Among 3292 patients, observed ranges of SVG and QRST angles (peak and mean) differed significantly based on sex, age, and race. Sex differences attenuated with increasing age. Men tended to have larger SVG magnitude (60.4 [46.1-77.8] vs. 52.5 [41.3-65.8] mv*ms, p < .0001) and elevation, and more anterior/negative SVG azimuth (-14.8 [-25.1 to -4.3] vs. 1.3 [-9.8 to 10.5] deg, p < .0001) compared to women. Men also had wider QRST angles. Observed ranges varied significantly with BMI and HR. SVG and QRST angle measurements were robust to different filtering bandwidths and moderate fiducial point annotation errors, but were heavily affected by changes in baseline correction.

CONCLUSIONS: Age, sex, race, BMI, and HR significantly affect the range of SVG and QRST angles in patients with normal ECGs and no known cardiovascular disease, and should be accounted for in future studies. An online calculator for prediction of these "normal limits" given demographics is provided at https://bivectors.github.io/gehcalc/.

BACKGROUND: Observational studies are increasingly used to inform health decision-making when randomised trials are not feasible, ethical or timely. The target trial approach provides a framework to help minimise common biases in observational studies that aim to estimate the causal effect of interventions. Incomplete reporting of studies using the target trial framework limits the ability for clinicians, researchers, patients and other decision-makers to appraise, synthesise and interpret findings to inform clinical and public health practice and policy. This paper describes the methods that we will use to develop the TrAnsparent ReportinG of observational studies Emulating a Target trial (TARGET) reporting guideline.

METHODS/DESIGN: The TARGET reporting guideline will be developed in five stages following recommended guidance. The first stage will identify target trial reporting practices by systematically reviewing published studies that explicitly emulated a target trial. The second stage will identify and refine items to be considered for inclusion in the TARGET guideline by consulting content experts using sequential online surveys. The third stage will prioritise and consolidate key items to be included in the TARGET guideline at an in-person consensus meeting of TARGET investigators. The fourth stage will produce and pilot-test both the TARGET guideline and explanation and elaboration document with relevant stakeholders. The fifth stage will disseminate the TARGET guideline and resources via journals, conferences and courses.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval for the survey has been attained (HC220536). The TARGET guideline will be disseminated widely in partnership with stakeholders to maximise adoption and improve reporting of these studies.

Several studies have shown that women and racial and ethnic minority patients are at increased risk of developing lower extremity peripheral artery disease and suffering adverse outcomes from it, but a knowledge gap remains regarding the underlying causes of these increased risks. Both groups are more likely to be underdiagnosed, have poorly managed contributory comorbidities, and incur disparities in treatment and management postdiagnosis. Opportunities for improvement in the care of women and racial and ethnic minorities with peripheral artery disease include increased rates of screening, higher rates of clinical suspicion (particularly in the absence of typical symptoms of intermittent claudication), and more aggressive risk factor management before and after the diagnosis of peripheral artery disease.

BACKGROUND: Ablation for persistent atrial fibrillation (PsAF) has been performed for over 20 years, although success rates have remained modest. Several adjunctive lesion sets have been studied but none have become standard of practice. We sought to describe how the efficacy of ablation for PsAF has evolved in this time period with a focus on the effect of adjunctive ablation strategies.

METHODS: Databases were searched for prospective studies of PsAF ablation. We performed meta-regression and trial sequential analysis.

RESULTS: A total of 99 studies (15 424 patients) were included. Ablation for PsAF achieved the primary outcome (freedom of atrial fibrillation/atrial tachycardia rate at 12 months follow-up) in 48.2% (5% CI, 44.0-52.3). Meta-regression showed freedom from atrial arrhythmia at 12 months has improved over time, while procedure time and fluoroscopy time have significantly reduced. Through the use of cumulative meta-analyses and trial sequential analysis, we show that some ablation strategies may initially seem promising, but after several randomized controlled trials may be found to be ineffective. Trial sequential analysis showed that complex fractionated atrial electrogram ablation is ineffective and further study of this treatment would be futile, while posterior wall isolation currently does not have sufficient evidence for routine use in PsAF ablation.

CONCLUSIONS: Overall success rates from PsAF ablation and procedure/fluoroscopy times have improved over time. However, no adjunctive lesion set, in addition to pulmonary vein isolation, has been conclusively demonstrated to be beneficial. Through the use of trial sequential analysis, we highlight the importance of adequately powered randomized controlled trials, to avoid reaching premature conclusions, before widespread adoption of novel therapies.

BACKGROUND: Current clinical decision tools for assessing bleeding risk in individuals with atrial fibrillation (AF) have limited performance and were developed for individuals treated with warfarin. This study develops and validates a clinical risk score to personalize estimates of bleeding risk for individuals with atrial fibrillation taking direct-acting oral anticoagulants (DOACs).

METHODS: Among individuals taking dabigatran 150 mg twice per day from 44 countries and 951 centers in this secondary analysis of the RE-LY trial (Randomized Evaluation of Long-Term Anticoagulation Therapy), a risk score was developed to determine the comparative risk for bleeding on the basis of covariates derived in a Cox proportional hazards model. The risk prediction model was internally validated with bootstrapping. The model was then further developed in the GARFIELD-AF registry (Global Anticoagulant Registry in the Field-Atrial Fibrillation), with individuals taking dabigatran, edoxaban, rivaroxaban, and apixaban. To determine generalizability in external cohorts and among individuals on different DOACs, the risk prediction model was validated in the COMBINE-AF (A Collaboration Between Multiple Institutions to Better Investigate Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulant Use in Atrial Fibrillation) pooled clinical trial cohort and the Quebec Régie de l'Assurance Maladie du Québec and Med-Echo Administrative Databases (RAMQ) administrative database. The primary outcome was major bleeding. The risk score, termed the DOAC Score, was compared with the HAS-BLED score.

RESULTS: Of the 5684 patients in RE-LY, 386 (6.8%) experienced a major bleeding event, within a median follow-up of 1.74 years. The prediction model had an optimism-corrected C statistic of 0.73 after internal validation with bootstrapping and was well-calibrated based on visual inspection of calibration plots (goodness-of-fit P=0.57). The DOAC Score assigned points for age, creatinine clearance/glomerular filtration rate, underweight status, stroke/transient ischemic attack/embolism history, diabetes, hypertension, antiplatelet use, nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory use, liver disease, and bleeding history, with each additional point scored associated with a 48.7% (95% CI, 38.9%-59.3%; P<0.001) increase in major bleeding in RE-LY. The score had superior performance to the HAS-BLED score in RE-LY (C statistic, 0.73 versus 0.60; P for difference <0.001) and among 12 296 individuals in GARFIELD-AF (C statistic, 0.71 versus 0.66; P for difference = 0.025). The DOAC Score had stronger predictive performance than the HAS-BLED score in both validation cohorts, including 25 586 individuals in COMBINE-AF (C statistic, 0.67 versus 0.63; P for difference <0.001) and 11 945 individuals in RAMQ (C statistic, 0.65 versus 0.58; P for difference <0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: In individuals with atrial fibrillation potentially eligible for DOAC therapy, the DOAC Score can help stratify patients on the basis of expected bleeding risk.